What will health and health care look like in the U.S. in the year 2032? It is a complex question, particularly given the immediate challenges facing the U.S. today. We are nowhere near being the healthiest nation on earth and we are all too aware of health care costs that continue to rise faster than inflation. Scenarios are stories describing how the future may unfold in different ways. They help us view the dynamic systems around us in more complex terms that accept uncertainty, and then clarify and challenge the assumptions about what we can do. We have carried many assumptions with us from the past that constrain our thinking about options for the future. While the future is inherently uncertain, scenarios help us bound that uncertainty into a limited number of likely paths. We can then explore the uncertainty to find the opportunities and challenges that might otherwise surprise us. People and organizations who work with scenarios find more creative options than those who develop plans based only on the past and present.The Institute for Alternative Futures works with many organizations to foster foresight, understanding and action through scenario development.
Health and Health Care in 2032: Report from the RWJF Futures Symposium June 20-21, 2012
Public Health 2030 Scenario
Human Service and Progress 2035