Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

Learning to Use the Future: Developing Foresight Capabilities Through Scenario Processes

Abstract

Organizational learning is one type of value created by scenarios and strategic foresight within companies. However, relatively little attention has been devoted to what and how individuals – such as managers and strategists – learn from participation within strategic scenario processes. The paper focuses on the learning effects of scenario processes on participants, using the Futures Literacy Hybrid Strategic Scenario (FLHSS) method. It presents an evaluative framework for capturing the learning and cognitive effects of using the imaginary future, and the learning benefits derived by participants in intensive scenario processes. The paper outlines how scenario activities change the capabilities of the individuals and organizational systems to understand the nature and role of the future for what they perceive and what they do. Cognition is the domain of the individual rather than the organization and, as a result, the micro processes through which individuals learn and challenge mental models appear to be antecedent resources to collective mental model changes within organizations. This suggests that companies should invest in pedagogically rich scenario processes that develop the capability of managers to sense changes. The learning generated by scenario processes can strengthen the ‘sensing’ dynamic capabilities of organizations.

Learning to use the Future: Developing Foresight Capabilities Through Scenarios Processes

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Futurists

MIllenium Issues and Nursing Leadership

Abstract

This Future Think column written in 1999 invites nurse leaders to exert influence and become involved in the Millenium Project. Nurses are uniquely positioned to lead and influence many of the global Millenium goals. The piece calls for nurses to use the Robert Dilts Logical Levels Model of Leadership to ascertain the center of gravity of issues whether they be environmental, behavioral or at the value- belief, identity, mission, or greater purpose level and shift the conversation to be more strategic in solving problems at the most meaningful logical level.

Millenium Issues and Nursing Leadership

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports

Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the United Kingdom

Abstract

This Guide is an introduction to Foresight. The Guide is oriented to those involved in forward planning and strategy development at regional and other subnational territorial levels. It is aimed specifically at potential Foresight practitioners and users. It sets out to explain how regional Foresight can be implemented to provide inputs to strategy and policy planning in regions, municipalities or localities, as well as to mobilize collective strategic actions.The guide provides basic concepts, discusses types of foresight, and strategies for implementation of foresight processes. Case studies are used to illustrate applied concepts. In addition there is an extensive bibliography and additional website links and useful resources

Practical Guide to Regional Foresight in the United Kingdom

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Additional Resources

Re-Think Health and Foresight for Health Rippel Foundation Initiatives

Abstract

The Vision of the Re-Think Health Initiative is  to create a new health system, by 2040,  that will help individuals, families, and neighborhoods thrive. It will be a system that fosters healthier, more resilient people and places. It will provide us with high-quality care when and where we need it, and it will value investment in our health and in our communities. No longer will we talk about what is wrong with our system; instead, we will rejoice in what we have achieved together and we will look forward to what else is possible. The web site provides models and tools  to help systems catalyze and develop systems thinking, foster more effective and broad-based stewardship teams, develop strategies for change, and offer diverse financing approaches so that change is sustainable over time.

Re-Think Health

Foresight for Health 

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations

Scenarios: Stories About the Future

Abstract

Futurists use scenario development and scenario learning to deal both with what is predictable and what is uncertain. Scenario learning is a process and strategy for decision making. Scenario use in nursing is underdeveloped; implied in every vision is a scenario or two that needs to be made explicit. Stories about the future help people make decisions and choices in the present. They enable planners to ask "what if' questions given a particular story line that contains a set of explanations or logic that accounts for the rationales of the plots and the desired results. Scenario development helps persons consider the long view in the face of what is predicted and what is uncertain. Scenarios are perception devices that help manage the meaning of current and projected trends. They are valuable because they stimulate conversations and promote organizational learning. 

Scenarios Stories About the Future

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports

Sense Making and Knowledge Transfer: Capturing the Knowledge and Wisdom of Nursing Leaders

Abstract

Experienced nurse leaders possess leadership wisdom that must be passed on in thoughtful, systematic ways to younger leaders. Sense making is an intentional process that has been useful in bringing forward a leader's implicit knowledge and wisdom gained over the years. This article examines leadership wisdom, complexity, and knowledge in the context of today's dynamic environment—and offers a concrete example of how the sense-making methodology can work. 

Sense Making and Knowledge Transfer: Capturing the Knowledge and Wisdom of Nursing Leaders

The Wisdom of Development and the Development of Wisdom

Topic
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

The Foresight Alliance

Abstract

Foresight Alliance is an innovative consulting firm that applies foresight, strategy, and research to build organizations’ resilience in today’s increasingly complex and fast-changing environment. The vision of the Foresight Alliance is to support and assist organizations to look beyond the current the present and anticipate and shape the  future by applying the disciplines of foresight in ways that inform strategy, stimulate innovation, and add to the bottom line.The Foresight Maturity Model was developed by Terry Grim while at Social Technologies. It is based on the work of leading futurists and the best practices that they have achieved in working with thousands of clients. The basis for the organization of this work can be found in Thinking About the Future, a book by Andy Hines and Dr. Peter Bishop.

Foresight Maturity Model Resources

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources

The Foresight Guide

Abstract

An encyclopedic resource for anyone interested in anticipating, creating and managing the future. The Foresight Guide is the first book anywhere that addresses a complete range of readers interested in the foresight field, including students, educators, and organizational leaders. It is a remarkably complete source for our times.  The most comprehensive free intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available anywhere in the world. The Guide is designed to be the best Big Picture Guide to 21st Century Foresight. Championing exponential, evolutionary developmental, and evidence-based thinking. The Guide is a product of Foresight University and the Acceleration Studies Foundation.

The Foresight Guide

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources
Community Collaborations Works in Progress

The Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures

Abstract

The mission of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, is to explore, understand and shape alternative futures of global change and human development. They have created the International Futures (IFs) model, the most sophisticated and comprehensive forecasting modeling system available to the public. IFs uses the best understanding of global systems to produce forecasts for 186 countries to the year 2100. IFs is a living tool that is constantly evolving. The ideal for a project would be that (1) the model's data updates and extensions become as automatic and simple as possible by drawing directly on freely and consistently available sources; (2) its modules become interchangeable components, open to the work by others wherever they are; and (3) its development and support communities become large and organized, yet dynamic.

Explore

Understand

Shape

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Future Organizations

The Futures Forum

Abstract

The Futures Forum is a research and education praxis that conducts strategic foresight studies, workshops, and advanced training, with a view to enabling paradigm shifts that address the complex challenges we face across all systems of both built and natural.  

The Futures Forum provides organizations and institutions (public and private) industry-research and education and advisory services across various industry sectors to make an impact that matters - delivering measurable and lasting results that help leaders make better decisions about the futures and they fear and inspire them to create better designs about the futures they want.  

 

The Futures Forum

 

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Additional Resources

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