Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

A New Methodology for Anticipating STEEP Surprises

Abstract

In technological forecasting and futures research on social change, the term wild card (a.k.a. disruptor or STEEP surprise), traditionally refers to a plausible future event that is estimated to have low probability but high impact should it occur. This article introduces: A Type II Wild Card, defined as having high probability and high impact as seen by experts if present trends continue, but low credibility for non-expert stakeholders of importance. A four-level typology of wild cards, leading to a systematic methodology for monitoring the emerging awareness and credibility of high probability disruptors and for assessment of stakeholder-specific views about them. An informal pilot test of the methodology both indicated that the approach has practical value, and highlighted the importance of highly plausible tipping points which could rapidly lead to massive disruption, either toward collapse or reformation in the complex adaptive systems (CAS) making up human civilization.

 

A New Methodology for Anticipating STEEP Surprises

Topic
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

AACN Futures Task Force Final Report

Abstract

The Board of Directors of AACN established the Futures Task Force in 2014 to conduct a review of the current and future changes in health care, nursing and higher education and develop recommendations . Four recommendations from the final report are: 1) AACN should be the driving force for innovation and excellence in nursing education. 2) AACN should position nursing as a leading partner in advancing systemic improvements in health and health care. 3) AACN should expand its reach and influence through the development of an organizational structure that is representative and responsive to key stakeholders. 4) AACN should be a leader in information curation and synthesis related to nursing education, practice and research. 

American Association of Colleges of Nursing Futures Task Force Final Report

AACN Vision Statement 

Topic
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations

Acceleration Studies Foundation

Abstract

The Acceleration Studies Foundation is an educational 501(c)(3) nonprofit engaged in outreach, education, research, and selective advocacy with respect to issues and processes of accelerating change. The organization helps communities, companies, and individuals improve their foresight capacity (innovation, creativity, strategy, planning, forecasting, and security) with respect to  - accelerating technological change. The objectives of the organization are 1) To promote a critical understanding of accelerating processes of planetary change, in service to societal, professional and personal evolutionary development. 2) To improve the methods individuals and organizations use to create, manage, and predict the future by advancing the emerging disciplines of acceleration studies, evolutionary development studies, and strategic foresight. 3) To broadly help individuals, organizations, and society to discover and create a future of "exponential promise".

Acceleration Studies Foundation

Future Salon Network

Foresight Education

Metaverse Roadmap: Pathways to the 3D Web

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and Reports
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources
Community Collaborations Works in Progress

An Educator’s Guide: Realistic and creative tools for thinking about the future

Abstract

Students' views about the future often guide their actions, mindsets, and sense of agency in the world. Based on a report called "Building Agency in the Face of Uncertainty," this resource is an easy-to-implement but significant tool to start the conversation with students about their futures.

 

An Educator’s Guide: Realistic and creative tools for thinking about the future

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Futurists
Additional Resources

Anticipating the Future Course University of Arizona

Abstract

Developed and maintained by Roger Caldwell, a retired professor at the University of Arizona this on line resource is a course about anticipating the future. Class activities are structured as tutorials and tours (with possible side trips on your own) or seminars (in depth presentations). Includes links to short courses on relevant topics. Futures resources, futures organizations, and viewpoints of selected futurists as well as basic reference material and case histories as well as references, glossaries and book reviews. A very useful resource that has been curated over time. 

University of Arizona Anticipating the Future Course 

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources

ASAE ForesightWorks

Abstract

The world in which associations operate is changing fast, and your organization’s leaders need to understand the external forces that could make or break its future success. Scanning the environment for strong, weak, and emerging drivers of change is critical to leading and managing your organization—or your corner of it. A collection of ASAE resources, powered by evidence-based research conducted by the ASAE Foundation, is designed to help you and your board envision and plan for the future while monitoring and acting in the present.

ASAE ForesightWorks is a deliberate, evidence-based research initiative and emerging line of products designed to be your partner in environmental scanning and planning for change. The program will provide you with a continual stream of intelligence about anticipated trends, tools to help you use the strategic intelligence in your work, and opportunities to engage.

The program’s mission is to empower you to create a culture of foresight in your association—not only by providing major trend analyses, but also by giving you and your volunteer leaders the tools and processes you need to practice scanning on your own.

Learn why associations need to practice foresight:

ASAE ForesightWorks

Topic
Additional Resources
theory and concepts
environmental scanning and trend analysis

Barrett Values Center

Abstract

Barrett Values Centre® provides powerful metrics that enable leaders to measure and manage the cultures of their organisations, and the leadership development needs of their managers and leaders.The core products of the organisation are the Cultural Transformation Tools® (CTT).   The Cultural Transformation Tools have been used to map the values of over 6,000 organisations and 3,000 leaders in 94 countries. The Cultural Transformation Tools are used by corporations, NGOs, government and municipal agencies, communities, schools and nations. The CTT values assessment instruments are available in over 50 languages.The tools help to identify personal, current and desired organizational cultures with a preferred future in mind.

Barrett Values Centre

Personal Values Assessment

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources

Care Emerges From Chaos

Abstract

Futures thinking involves paying attention to self-organizing patterns and discerning the logical consequences of those patterns through time. Future thinking requires critical, creative, and network thinking. Network thinking involves consideration of webs of relationships among facts, trends, values, and outcomes that influence and interact with one another. The study of complex adaptive systems is helping us learn about network thinking. Complexity science suggests that interactions among agents of a system are its greatest sources of novelty, creativity, and adaptability. The science of chaos and complexity is informing and influencing leadership, management, and the future.

Care Emerges from Chaos

Topic
Theory and Concepts
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

Charting Nursing's Future: A Robert Wood Johnson Library Collection

Abstract

Charting Nursing's Future is a Robert Wood Johnson initiative to inform hospital executives, state and national lawmakers, nursing and nursing education leaders, and other policymakers about a wide range of issues relating to the nursing shortage and the role of nurses in building a Culture of Health. This series addresses topics such as nursing education, collaboration to ease the nursing shortage, recruitment and retention, transformation of the work environment, nursing workforce data collection, quality patient care, the nursing faculty shortage, and the role of nurse leaders in transforming public health.

Charting Nursing's Future

Future of Nursing 2020-2030

Topic
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis
Scenarios and reports
Future Organizations
Futurists
Additional Resources

Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as Strategic Management

Abstract

The author, Michel Godet maintains that, with the right tools and attitudes, people can learn how to create futures. In this handbook for professionals, managers, planners, and entrepreneurs he describes and details a number of futures-thinking techniques--from workshops to scenario-building software--that enhance the collective process. Readers will find effective ways to anticipate change, while avoiding cliched solutions and conventional thinking. Creating Futures provides powerful tools for business and political leaders facing uncertainty.

Creating Futures

Topic
Models and Methods
Environmental Scanning and Trend Analysis

Theme by Danetsoft and Danang Probo Sayekti inspired by Maksimer